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Rig decline clouds future growth


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With oil, natural gas and coal prices all running high, state revenue is getting a boost from its fossil fuel extraction industries.

But a slowdown in drilling may indicate that a decade-long natural gas production increase is beginning to plateau, officials say.

As of Friday, there were 66 active rotary rigs in Wyoming, according to Baker Hughes. Wyoming averaged close to 100 rigs in 2005, about 70 in 2007.

Coal-bed methane rigs declined by 16 since March, while rotary rigs declined by seven, according to the Wyoming Department of Revenue's economic analysis division. For the most recent 12-month period compared to the previous twelve months, coal-bed methane rigs declined 12.9 percent while rotary rigs dropped off by 23.9 percent.

"We're trying to find out where that new equilibrium is for rigs," said Jim Robinson, senior economist for the economic analysis division.

Wyoming's natural gas producers increased export volumes an average of 6.4 percent annually for the past 10 years, according to the Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. During that time, Wyoming went from the nation's No. 7 natural gas producer to No. 2.

Generally, it takes more and more wells to produce the same amount of gas each year. It's known in the industry as the "decline ratio." So in order to sustain the Rocky Mountain region's 4 percent average annual production increase, the industry must exponentially increase the number of wells it has on the ground today.

Industry officials say they're getting too much push-back from conservationists in places including Colorado, the Pinedale Anticline and the Wyoming Range to maintain the same rate of production growth recorded in recent years.

"As rig counts go down, those rigs move into other states where they can stay active. And getting those rigs back can be difficult," said Bruce Hinchey, president of the Petroleum Association of Wyoming.

Drilling on federal leases in south-central Wyoming is expected to slow to a halt until a federal environmental impact statement is completed in the Bureau of Land Management's Rawlins field office. Industry officials worry the same scenario could play out in the Pinedale Anticline.

Already, coal-bed methane producers experience a drastic slowdown during the winter and springtime due to federal sage grouse and raptor seasonal stipulations.

But environmental concerns are not entirely to blame, Hinchey said.

Last year, natural gas production in the Rockies exceeded pipeline export capacity, which severely depressed wholesale prices for producers here.

State economists worried that if limited pipeline infrastructure continued to hobble prices in the Rockies that gas producers might focus their capital elsewhere. But it has only been a few months since a major pipeline export expansion brought Rockies natural gas prices back in line with the rest of the nation.

"As far as production, once a company -- large or small -- makes that commitment, they are going to stick it out as long as they can," Robinson said. "Large companies can ride out bad prices for six months to a year."

Robinson said he suspects the oil and gas industry is working less overtime. The number of employees in the industry seems to have stabilized at about 18,000, while the number of rigs has declined.

"They're probable working less overtime. That's why we see the number of rigs down and employees maintaining," Robinson said.

Energy reporter Dustin Bleizeffer can be reached at (307) 577-6069 or dustin.bleizeffer@trib.com.


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Comments to this story.

Joe H. wrote on Apr 27, 2008 6:45 AM:

" Finally,Hopefully the carnage of the destruction of Wyoming is slowing. "

Dewd wrote on Apr 27, 2008 9:50 AM:

" When the Oil Tycoons gripe about " too much pushback from conservationists" , it's laughable. Conservation groups are all that's keeping Big Oil and Bad Gas from running totally roughshod over the landscape, cleaving and pillaging as they go like Ghenghis Khan's Mongols riding in Chevy Tahoes with the fires of avarice burning in their red stained eyes. It is a good thing that the petroleum producers don't have their way with what's left of the West , Wyoming being the sordid exception to that. We're 11th century Mongolia in more ways than one. "

Jeff M wrote on Apr 27, 2008 7:58 PM:

" Conservationist are peer @#$%^ and can go hug their trees.GOD gave us this land to use for our very own and when tree huggers are more worried about a tree or a piece of land then a human being that is sickening. Conservationists should be ashamed of themselves.I've worked in the oilfield for over 18 years and have never seen one animal hurt by a drilling rig or one animal even be skared of a rig. We have had Elk ,antalope, and deer walk rite past the rig with not a further care.People are going hungry with conservationist putting them out of work. "

good grief wrote on Apr 27, 2008 10:22 PM:

" On the comment section of a leter to the editor dated April 22 2008 subject "wardens scramble to the rescue" do a search and you will find it.

On this letter there was a post by Dewd stating he got to put on a defence for a traffic ticket when the officer did not show up.

this was a patent untruth as a case is automaticly dismissed if the officer is not present. check with cody (i did) and you will find what i say is the truth. If Dewd will make untruthfull statements about a mere traffic ticket what else will he do the same with. I suspect everything he says is now suspect. "

Enuff wrote on Apr 28, 2008 8:23 AM:

" Hey dewd , You ride a horse or a bike every day ? You live in teepee tents ? You like anything made from plastic ? Uh ..huh...I thought so. Better think about those strong words you all use gas & oil in more ways than you can imagine. "

stumpydriller wrote on May 28, 2008 9:30 PM:

" Went to the BLM Sage Grouse implementation meeting in Buffalo today, 5/28/08. The expected comments from the BLM and the crowd didn't surprise me much. The BLM has the stance and following protocol in listening to the gripes and moans of the CBM market. Several good points were made by attendants but fall on deaf ears when it comes to the government. The BLM Protocol does not include taking into consideration the economic or social economic impact that their regulations and stipulations have on or region. According to one of the BLM spokesman drawing referrence from the 40CFR, "We take care of the birds and the land, and another government agency handles the economic impact." In other words... The BLM Buffalo Office does not care how any of this will effect this regions economic stability. Why should they? They have jobs year 'round! And if they didn't they would make one up and accept "OUR" taxpayer money and their paycheck every month. New rules and regulations are not the answer, doesn't matter what the question is. Enforcing the laws and regulations that are already in place will take care of any problem that will arise. In my opinion there has to be a compromise to obtain a win, win situation for both the Energy Development & the salvation of our ecosystems. I'm sure that taxpayers that include lease holders would be more than generous in helping implement a captive breading program to insure the survival of the Sage Grouse or any other effected species within our state. "I'd rather spend a million dollars a year saving the Sage Grouse than to lose a BILLION dollars a month of lost revenue."

In this battle there has to be a sacrificial lamb. Will it be the sage Grouse? NOPE. The heavy minerals (coal, uranium)? NOPE. Ranchers? NOPE. Oil & gas? (getting closer) NOPE. CBM Development? Tell 'em what they've won BOB!!! Have any of the environmentalists or biologists probed into the past regarding this region that is in question? In the 80's the BLM declared war on the grasshoppers bombin them with pesticides from the air in the exact region that is considered "prime habitat" for Sage Grouse. Sage brush irradication in the 70's spraying, burning, plowing under, where the "friends" of the Sage Grouse then? Another issue is.... predators. As the cycle of upswing in the rabbit population peaks and plumits so do the cycles of predators. When rabbits are down, what's the next food source for predators? So many questions have been raised over the salvation of our feathered friend. In order to insure "our" salvation the entire state needs to stand as one entity telling the BLM that they CANNOT DISCRIMINATE, there will be no sacrificial lamb here. It's all or nothing. The same should have been done with the wolves. If they go in one National park, they should have gone in EVERY NATIONAL PARK. Listen to them howl in Central Park! "

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