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Trauner's financial lead may dwindle after primary election, expert says


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CHEYENNE -- All of the major candidates for Wyoming’s lone U.S. House seat found reason to celebrate their fundraising tallies this week as the second-quarter reporting deadline passed.

Democratic candidate Gary Trauner of Wilson is nearing the $1 million mark in total contributions, and said he's getting most of his support from Wyoming voters.

Republican Mark Gordon of Buffalo has contributed nearly $650,000 of his own money to his campaign, but he also highlighted the fact that the balance of his contributions are coming mostly from Wyoming donors.

Former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis of Cheyenne, a Republican, has more money remaining in her war chest -- about $250,000 -- than any of her GOP rivals, and said she is drawing largely on local support, as well.

Bill Winney, the Bondurant Republican who challenged Rep. Barbara Cubin in the 2006 primary, found reason to celebrate his much smaller fundraising total of almost $95,000, including a $90,000 personal loan.

"I think I spend my money far more efficiently than (the other candidates) do," Winney said. "I also make up for some of the funding differential by blood, sweat and tears – and gasoline and tire rubber."

All four candidates are vying to take over the seat held by Cubin, R-Wyo., who is not running for re-election.

Financial figures for Republican candidate Michael S. Holland of Green River and Libertarian W. David Herbert of Cody were not available from the Federal Elections Commission on Wednesday. The candidates did not respond to phone messages left Wednesday afternoon.

Gordon may spend $1M

Wyoming political experts said it’s difficult to draw in-depth conclusions from the numbers, given the lack of publicly available polling about the race. However, the figures shed some light on the strategies, and limitations, of individual candidates, they said.

Gordon, a rancher and businessman, has so far contributed almost $648,000 to his own campaign, and could be on track to contribute $1 million if he competes in the general election. His cash on hand was listed at $69,000.

Large personal contributions are not unprecedented in Wyoming politics -- Jackson lawyer Bob Schuster injected $1.3 million into his unsuccessful campaign against Cubin in 1994 -- and may not be perceived as a liability by voters, said University of Wyoming political scientist Jim King.

"If it appears that someone has no connections to the constituency, that can look like a carpetbagger moving in," King said. "But for the most part, (Gordon) has touted his Wyoming connections, so it doesn’t appear to be a big liability."

Political analysts said that as a newcomer to politics, it’s understandable that Gordon is injecting large amounts of personal wealth into the campaign in an effort to raise his profile through advertising. Gordon said his personal investment shows his commitment to the race and the people of Wyoming.

"I am facing a career politician who has spent her entire adult and professional life building close relationships with special interest groups and deep-pocket political donors," Gordon said in reference to Lummis. "The only way a conservative, independent businessman and rancher can compete with a career politician is to use his personal funds."

Lummis stockpiling?

Lummis, a two-term state treasurer who also served in the state Legislature, has raised about $370,000, including a personal loan worth about $70,000. Her second-quarter fundraising total was close to $200,000.

With nearly a quarter-million dollars still in the bank, Lummis has far more cash on hand than any of her GOP opponents headed into the Aug. 19 primary.

"Thanks to many Wyoming contributors from all 23 counties, we will have the resources to share our conservative, Wyoming common-sense message with voters," Lummis said in a statement.

Dave Marcum, political scientist at Laramie County Community College in Cheyenne, said Lummis’ large cash reserves could indicate that she is saving up to take on Trauner in the general election.

"There may be something telling her she’s got a lead on Gordon, and she may be saving her resources for Trauner," said Marcum, noting that candidates often conduct their own voter polling. "She may be trying to shepherd her resources until she absolutely has to spend it."

Trauner, a businessman who narrowly lost the 2006 general election to Cubin, has consistently outpaced his GOP rivals in fundraising, a fact he attributes to the voters’ desire for a different kind of candidate.

"People are fed up, and they’re fed up with both sides, and they’re looking for something different," said Trauner, adding that while backlash against the GOP also may be contributing somewhat to his support, he thinks his efforts to run a positive campaign in 2006 are paying off today.

"Clearly something is triggering their desire to contribute to the campaign," Trauner added.

GOP will back candidate

Trauner raised about $317,000 this quarter and reported cash on hand of almost $701,700. That brings his fundraising total to $977,000 -- more than he spent during the 2006 race.

King, the UW professor, said Trauner established himself as a viable candidate in 2006, and donors are now willing to back him.

But he said Trauner's massive financial advantage should begin to dwindle after the primary election, when outside Republican groups begin to pour money into the GOP primary winner’s campaign.

"The Republican nominee will make up a lot of that deficit," King said.

Winney, a former Navy officer who garnered 40 percent of the vote in the 2006 GOP primary against Cubin, has raised just $5,000 from contributors so far, and had $81,400 cash on hand at the end of the quarter.

Political analysts said he faces an uphill battle, and will probably struggle just to get his message out to voters in the remaining weeks of the primary campaign. Holland and Herbert face similar challenges, they said.

"If you don’t get a chance to get out and meet people or to be advertising, your name doesn’t get known, and people have to know your name before they’re going to vote for you," King said.

But Winney said he is making up for the shortage of campaign dollars by pursuing an aggressive shoe-leather campaign across the state.

He also said most of his contributions come from individual Wyoming residents, rather than out-of-state donors and political groups.

"I would argue that the money I am using and spending was somebody’s money earned with sweat," said Winney, who is touring the state in an elaborately decorated Mustang car. "And I think they like that better around the state."

Reach reporter Jared Miller at (307) 632-1244 or at jared.miller@trib.com.

BREAKOUT

Comparing funds

A look at each Wyoming U.S. House candidate's fundraising efforts:

Republican Cynthia Lummis

* Total funds raised: $369,700

* Funds raised this quarter: $199,000

* Cash on hand: $247,500

* Personal funds contributed: $67,000

Republican Mark Gordon

* Total funds raised: $723,600

* Funds raised this quarter: $415,967

* Cash on hand: $69,382

* Personal funds contributed: $647,700

Democrat Gary Trauner

* Total funds raised: $990,000

* Funds raised this quarter: $318,000

* Cash on hand: $701,700

* Personal funds contributed: $0

Republican Bill Winney

* Total funds raised: $95,000

* Funds raised this quarter: $5,000

* Cash on hand: $81,400

* Personal funds contributed: $90,000

Source: Reports to Federal Elections Commission


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Reader Comments

There are 11 comment(s)

Comments to this story.

Steve wrote on Jul 17, 2008 9:03 AM:

" Any vote for Democrat Gary Trauner
is a vote for the radical leftest that run the Democrat party. If he truly believed what he says, he would not be running as a Democrat. "

Richard wrote on Jul 17, 2008 10:43 AM:

" A vote for Cynthia Lummis is a vote for Barbara Cubin.

Right now, it's the Republican Leaders in Congress who tie up and lock down Republican Representatives. Gary will be independent and a maverick... better than another party hack on either side, if you ask me. "

Meagan wrote on Jul 17, 2008 10:46 AM:

" I don't trust Cynthia Lummis any further than I can throw her.

Wyoming learned its lesson about career politicians with Barbara Cubin... we don't need a second lesson with Cynthia Lummis.

Mark Gordon or Gary Trauner will be my picks! Independent businessmen, fathers who are fed up... that's what Washington needs. "

Independent wrote on Jul 17, 2008 11:55 AM:

" Steve, you are one of those republican lemmings; mindlessly following along to your own detriment. If you are not a rich oil tycoon, the republican party isn't doing anything for you and will not any time soon. I know; you are probably afraid that Trauner will take your guns away; wake up...noone is going to take your guns away. The GOP will take your constitutional rights away though if you let them. I'll bet that you vote for every republican for every office; if you even vote at all. If satan was running as a republican, you would vote for him; wouldn't you? Stop being a lemming; look at what each candidate stands for and vote for the candidate that best represents your point of view and your interests. Stand up and be an independent thinker; not a mindless lemming. "

What the F--- wrote on Jul 17, 2008 1:39 PM:

" "Bill Winney, the Bondurant Republican who challenged Rep. Barbara Cubin in the 2006 primary, found reason to celebrate his much smaller fundraising total of almost $95,000, including a $90,000 personal loan."

HAHAHAHA!!! This has to be a joke! "

Disgusted Wyomingite wrote on Jul 17, 2008 1:44 PM:

" I am with Meagan, we don't need
another Barbara Cubin clone back
in DC. I am either with Mark Gordon
or Gary Trauner. "

A Zero Here A Zero There wrote on Jul 17, 2008 2:27 PM:

" Lummis was a Republican Treasurer. If she didn't come out of that with some money for her treasure chest, she did it wrong. That's not the kind of thing that shows up on these 'reports' though. "

What wrote on Jul 17, 2008 3:59 PM:

" I'm so tired of Jim King and Dave Marcum being referred to as experts. Jared Miller asks the same two people for every political story and as usual nothing insightful is ever said. "

Cal wrote on Jul 17, 2008 4:17 PM:

" Yes, Trauner or Gordon are who we need. Two guys that have no legislative experience and have never worked a bill through the process. You think we're under-represented now, just wait until one of them gets in there. NO THANKS! "

Scott in Cody wrote on Jul 18, 2008 7:49 PM:

" Cynthia Lummus is not the second round of Rep. Cubin. While their political views may be similar, the two are quite different in their personalities, and for those concerned about voting records, int he fourteen years that Cynthia Lummis spent in the state legislature, she missed all of five votes so that she could give birth to someone that grew up to be a very nice young lady. "

wyofan wrote on Aug 16, 2008 5:20 PM:

" Interesting that Trauner/Gordon are mentioned together. Both liberals but one is running as something he's not. I'll vote for Lummis. "

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