BILL SCHILLING
Perspective

Until the recent economic upheaval, climate change was the popular topic of discussion across the nation. No matter where you turned, there were doom and gloom commentaries on an imminent tipping point.

The environmental side has strong proponents -- scientists, politicians, and the media. But, before the U.S. -- and the world -- launch into full-scale prescriptions the other, less talked about, side of the story should be presented as well. Hence, the theme of this Wyoming Heritage forum in Casper Nov. 20-21: "Climate Change: Politics and Economic Realities."

-- At the national level, 27 states have renewable portfolios; 23 have cap-and-trade legislation; and 18 have greenhouse gas emission standards. Yet how many of these states factor in the loss of 3-4 million jobs nationally by 2030 due to carbon cap-and-trade legislation like the Lieberman/Warner bill, supported by both presidential candidate aspirants.

-- While green jobs could very well be the wave of the future, should the movement to green be by way of private sector initiatives or government-mandated regulations? The cost/benefits of dealing with CO2 emissions -- reportedly 5 percent of which are caused by mankind -- are important to consider. Reducing emissions to 30 percent below 2005 levels will result in around $538 less U.S. family disposable income, gasoline and electricity increases of 100 percent, and $669 billion yearly declines in the gross national product.

The economic costs of dealing effectively with climate change are real and documentable. Here in Wyoming, according to the American Council for Capital Formation, there will be about 7,300 job losses, $5,200 in less household disposable income, gasoline and electricity increases in the order of 107 percent to 114 percent, and the decline of $1.4 billion in the state's gross state product, some 5 percent by current standards.

Obviously, coal production in Wyoming -- the nation's number-one producer accounting for 38 percent of the nation's electricity -- is on the hit list. The stakes are huge for our state. By my calculations, a 40 percent decline in coal production -- well within economic forecasts based on legislation proposed -- would amount to $360 million yearly of revenue losses to the state and local governments, including schools. Quite a reality test in terms of tax revenue for services -- about $685 for every Wyoming resident.

Whether or not climate change exists is not in dispute. Some 600 scientists across the globe say it is unequivocal. What increasingly is in dispute is whether reductions can or will take place worldwide, not just in the U.S., but in rapidly developing economies such as China and India; and whether global warming is more natural than mankind induced, based on emerging and more frequent research that pinpoints a 1,500-year event linked to solar activity.

Not withstanding the science, there are the real-world practicalities. Is it really practical to expect solar generation to increase 4,000 times, subsidized wind power 75 times, the doubling of U.S. natural gas production, 50 additional hydro plants the size of Hoover Dam, and the construction of 250 nuclear plants to take place in order to replace coal production in the U.S.?

Realism versus idealism is really the heart of the climate change debate. The foot path of human activity is real, driven by the foreboding fact that electricity usage will increase by 30 percent over the next 20 years But, so too, are nature's forces -- forces which led to farming in Greenland and grape vineyards in England a thousand years ago. The climate change debate will continue and likely increase long after America's current economic meltdown. What legislation and mandates spring forth will have significant and economic impacts on Main Street and households across America.

For all of the above reasons, I invite Wyoming citizens to attend this year's provocative and challenging forum, "Climate Change: Politics and Economic Realities" on Nov. 20-21 at the Parkway Plaza in Casper. It will feature for the first time ever in Wyoming three leading world climate change experts: Dennis Avery, Eileen Claussen, and Bjorn Lomborg. More information about their impressive backgrounds can be found on the Internet.

Bill Schilling is president of the Wyoming Business Alliance/Wyoming Heritage Foundation.