Now that the election is over, and president-elect Barack Obama is putting together his administration, people in Wyoming's energy industry are wondering what might be in store for them.

But the future of coal mining, natural gas drilling, electrical generation, wind development and other aspects of Wyoming energy may depend less on who won the presidency, or who won congressional seats, than the global economic meltdown that began weeks before Election Day and continues to falter.

"The ambitions of the administration will be disciplined by the very dire economic situation that the United States is in, and secondly disciplined by the election results that clearly indicate a public frustration with partisan bickering and a desire to see that jobs are made a priority," Luke Popovich, vice president of external communications for the National Mining Association, told the Star-Tribune.

The fact is, both president-elect Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., promised a cap-and-trade approach to climate change policy. Both vowed to support "clean coal" technologies and renewable energy. Both vowed to build up the nation's energy infrastructure.

Most important, all of these promises were made long before the economic and credit meltdown that has changed the world of energy - back when the price of oil was $100 per barrel and soaring upward.

Back in June, relentless demand for energy, high energy prices and easy credit opened the door to a wave of clean coal and renewable energy projects. The only delay seemed to be a wait-and-see attitude regarding which cap-and-trade policy would be championed in Washington, D.C.: A stringent Obama version, or a possibly more lenient McCain version.

Then, over the course of a few short months, the price of oil declined from $140 per barrel to around $60 per barrel. The nation's economy tanked, and credit in the capital market is near impossible to find for $1 billion projects.

"Some of those things people thought possible in June just aren't possible now," said Rob Hurless, energy and telecommunications advisor to Gov. Dave Freudenthal.

While today's financial crisis may trump differing views on energy policy in the near-term, Hurless said whoever leads the discussion on energy does matter. For example, Rep. Henry Waxman, D-California, has reportedly postured to take over chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee from current Chairman Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich.

A report in the Los Angeles Times indicated that posturing reveals a battle within the Democratic Party about how to address climate change; California's ambitious anti-coal approach, or a more pragmatic Rust Belt approach from coal-state Democrats.

Hurless said despite a desire among some to implement big and quick changes in American energy policy, complex economic and logistical realities will force a new presidential administration and Congress to move pragmatically.

"The social mandate is that people in this country want to move to cleaner energy," said Hurless. "I don't think the direction changes, but the pace may change from what some people thought was possible six months ago."

Contact energy reporter Dustin Bleizeffer at (307) 577-6069 or dustin.bleizeffer@trib.com

BREAKOUT BOXES

Barack Obama's energy plan

Here are some highlights of president-elect Barack Obama's plan for American energy policy, taken from his Web site on Friday:

- Provide short-term relief to American families facing pain at the pump.

- Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next 10 years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future.

- Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import from the Middle East and Venezuela combined.

- Put 1 million plug-in hybrid cars - cars that can get up to 150 miles per gallon - on the road by 2015; cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America.

- Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.

- Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.

Source: www.barackobama.com

Cap-and-trade

A cap-and-trade program sets a maximum limit on emissions - in this case greenhouse gases. All facilities that are covered under a program - presumably electrical generation plants, refineries and cement plants, for example - are authorized to emit greenhouse gases under and up to the maximum allowable limit. The limit, presumably, would be significantly lower than the current level of emissions and can be ratcheted down annually, prompting polluters to incorporate technologies to achieve lower emissions without the government dictating which technologies they choose.

Entities that can lower emissions below their cap can sell the remaining emission units (or credits) to other entities that exceed their cap. So if Power Plant A achieves emissions five units below the cap, it can sell two units to Power Plant B to help make up for however many units Power Plant B is over the cap, and sell the other three units to whomever needs it.

The buying and selling of these credits is expected to create a carbon credit market, which has already begun to happen. (See the Chicago Climate Exchange: www.chicagoclimatex.com).

Western energy agenda

The Western Governors Association has made energy its top priority in recent years. At its annual meeting in Jackson this summer, western governors met with the CEOs of four major utilities and came up with this list of priorities for Western and national energy policies:

- Massive expansion of the federal commitment to energy research and development.

- Consistent, long-term policies to incentivize deployment of renewable and other low-carbon resources.

- Responsive land management policies to enable the timely development of the West's resources and associated transmission, while protecting critical environmental values.

- Clear, long-term federal policies on greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: Western Governors Association