The jobs Casper's economy creates in 2020 may not look much different than they do today, but the same may not be true of the workers.

Tom Gallagher, manager of the Research and Planning Section, Wyoming Department of Employment, said it might be useful to learn Spanish, since replacement workers increasingly will be immigrants.

"You can't meet the demand for labor with the existing population stock," he said.

By 2020, the percentage of Natrona County's population 65 years old and older could reach 20 percent, according to state demographics expert Wenlin Liu. Total population is forecast at 79,600.

"As the population ages, we know that consumption patterns change," Gallagher said. "So that's going to change what kind of labor you need in the market to deliver those goods and services."

The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates older people spend a smaller proportion of their incomes on vehicles, but more on fruits and vegetables, for example.

They spend less on apparel and related services, and less on food away from home, while spending much more on health services.

They spend a bigger share of income on utilities, fuels and public services. They also are much more likely to be homeowners without mortgages.

As time goes on, there will be more women than men as a proportion of surviving baby boomers, since women live longer than men.

With an aging population and slower labor force growth, retention and turnover take on added significance.

"There's an enormous number of people who come [to Wyoming] every year, but for some reason, they don't stay," Gallagher said.

He said there may be friction between people coming into the state and people already here: "Of the people we bring in, how do we make them more comfortable in the community?"

The state government is exploring ways to encourage older people to remain employed, perhaps on a part-time basis, as a strategy for mitigating labor shortages.

In a broad sense, Gallagher doesn't foresee big changes in Casper's basic economic mix at least through 2014.

"We don't see anything beyond an elaboration of the current state of affairs," he said.

Mining employment is expected to grow by about 45 percent between 2004 and 2014, followed by construction at 37.3 percent. Total employment is forecast to grow by about 27 percent.

Liu foresees similar trends. No decline is expected in natural resources and mining, although the growth experienced in recent years will probably slow.

High oil prices also will tend to push up prices for natural gas and coal, he said. And with increasing global demand, the era of cheap oil appears to be over.

Construction, professional and business services, and local government also should remain strong, Liu said.

"The future, in part, depends upon how well we respond to what we see going on," Gallagher said.

In that regard, a study conducted for the Casper Area Economic Development Alliance (CAEDA) suggested there may be new manufacturing opportunities in Casper's future.

The study identified makers of turbines; manufacturers of conveying and materials handling equipment; overhead crane, hoist and monorail systems manufacturing; industrial truck, tractor, trailer and stacker machinery manufacturing; and high-end industrial services and production, such as machine shops and heat-treating facilities.

In the medical arena, manufacturers of irradiation apparatuses, in-vitro diagnostic substances, medicinal and botanical manufacturing, and medical laboratories were among the recommendations.

Office facilities also were identified as potential businesses that could help diversify the regional economy.

Some Natrona County employment is under-represented when compared to the U.S., which may indicate additional opportunities for business development.

Such industries include food manufacturing, printing and related support activities, nonmetalic metal product manufacturing, electronics related activities, health and personal care stores, and transit and ground passenger transportation, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Business Editor Tom Mast can be reached at tom.mast@trib.com, or call 307-266-0574.

Employment by industry, Natrona County

Industry 2004 2014 % change

Agriculture, forestry

fishing & hunting 111 145 30.6%

Mining 2,967 4,297 44.8%

Construction 2,402 3,297 37.3%

Manufacturing 1,609 1,973 22.6%

Wholesale trade,

transportation &

utilities 3,464 4,547 31.3%

Retail trade 4,819 5,700 18.3%

Information 616 629 2.1%

Financial activities 1,884 2,414 28.1%

Professional &

business services 2,936 3,779 28.7%

Education &

health care 7,166 9,240 28.9%

Leisure and hospitality 3,489 4,462 27.9%

Other services 1,340 1,553 15.9%

Government 2,467 2,622 6.3%

Total 35,270 44,658 26.6%