Some states could go to Obama, they say

Western govs say region's in play

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JACKSON - Western governors say the region's changing demographics could make some of their states unusually competitive in this year's presidential election and leave a Western imprint on the national debate over issues such as energy and the economy.

While much of the West is likely to remain reliably Republican, the governors say a chunk of the region - particularly Colorado, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico and North Dakota - is still up for grabs and garnering extra attention from the John McCain and Barack Obama campaigns.

About a dozen governors gathered recently in Wyoming for a Western Governors' Association meeting that focused on energy development, climate change, water supply and wildlife habitat. The governors say the presidential hopefuls would benefit from addressing those issues and other regional themes such as immigration, protecting public lands and gun rights.

"There is very much a changing demographic throughout the West, and Utah is certainly part of that," said Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican. "When I was elected four years ago, the political lay of the land was far different than it is today. So is the region in play? There's no question about that. Utah, less so."

Kenneth Bickers, political science chairman at the University of Colorado and an observer of regional politics, said many Western states are experiencing an influx of new residents, including people from the East and West coasts and a growing Hispanic population.

"I think what you've got in these states are a lot more, in a sense, free agents than people that already have in mind particular partisan attachments," Bickers said.

Huntsman said the trend opens the door for the candidate who puts national issues, such as climate change, into a Western context. He said McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee and a Westerner who hails from Arizona, has the upper hand.

"I've been with John McCain around some of the Western states," Huntsman said. "He is a Western leader, and he speaks the language of the West."

But for Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter, a Democrat, the large number of newcomers and independent voters in his state sets the stage for Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Colorado has fewer registered Democrats than registered independents or Republicans, and George W. Bush won the state in 2000 and 2004. Still, Democrats have picked up numerous state offices in recent years.

"The independent voters have aligned behind Democrats," Ritter said. "Barack Obama has a real opportunity to win that vote, because he has a lot about him that recommends him to Western voters. He's independent-minded, he's future looking, he's optimistic, and those have been qualities that have all really mattered to Western voters, but particularly to Colorado independents."

Arizona Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano said voters in her state and across the West are concerned with the same issues as voters in other parts of the country, especially the economy and energy independence.

At its late June meeting, the Western Governors' Association embarked on a plan to draft a national energy policy in hope of influencing the next presidential administration. The governors, many of whom represent states rich in natural resources, said the nation needs to focus on diverse, secure and affordable energy sources.

"I think from an Arizona standpoint, people are really concerned about that," Napolitano said. "And obviously immigration remains a concern. They'll be listening very carefully to the candidates there."

Bickers, the political scientist at University of Colorado, said it's been "many, many election cycles since several of the Western states simultaneously were in play."

"As a region, it's acting more like a region," he said.

But it's early yet, and historically Democrats have done better in the polls further out from the general election, Bickers said. In 2004, Colorado polls conducted two months before the election showed Sen. John Kerry to be within the margin of error in his challenge against Bush, Bickers said. But Bush went on to win the state by 5 percentage points.

"New Mexico is probably the state this is most likely to continue to be volatile and in play," Bickers said. "I'm going to be surprised if Montana and North Dakota continue to be toss-ups by the time we get to November, but they might, and it's hard to know at this point if Obama will be able to take his standing in the current polls and build on those as opposed to seeing them erode as we get closer to November."

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