CHEYENNE - A single percentage point is all that separates the Democrat from the Republican in the race for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat, a new Casper Star-Tribune poll shows.

Democrat Gary Trauner of Wilson leads Republican Cynthia Lummis of Cheyenne 44 percent to 43 percent, respectively, the poll shows.

However, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, so the race is a statistical tie based on the results.

Libertarian David Herbert earned 4 percent in the poll, while 9 percent were undecided. Rep. Barbara Cubin, R-Wyo., is not running for re-election.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 13-14 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C. A total of 625 likely Wyoming voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All said they regularly vote in state elections.

Political experts said the poll numbers in the U.S. House race make it nearly impossible to project a winner. The key to victory may be the undecided voters, they said.

Of those undecided voters, 75 percent are Republicans, 16 percent are Democrats and 9 percent are independents, which probably bodes well for Lummis, they said.

"This could allow Lummis to pull it out," pollster J. Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research said.

University of Wyoming political scientist Jim King said Trauner has already won the support of roughly 25 percent of Republicans in the state, and it may be difficult for him to convince many more to join his side.

Trauner also lacks the advantage of running against an unpopular incumbent this year like he did in 2006 against Rep. Barbara Cubin, R-Wyo., King noted.

"There may still be some room for him to pick up Republicans who are dissatisfied with the way things are going, but I don't think it's a huge amount," King said.

Lummis 'working hard'

But Trauner's track record shows some ability to sway Republicans on Election Day.

For example, Trauner was down by 7 percentage points in a similarly timed Casper Star-Tribune poll during his 2006 race with Cubin. On election day, however, he lost the contest by only about 1,000 votes, or less than one percent.

Also, the undecided voters may be somewhat moderate, as illustrated in a separate poll question in which 42 percent of respondents said both political parties are to blame for the slowdown in the U.S. Economy.

The poll shows that voters overall have a more favorable impression of Trauner than Lummis.

Forty-one percent of likely voters said they have a favorable impression of Trauner, while 31 percent have an unfavorable impression, 20 percent were neutral, and 8 percent didn't recognize his name.

By contrast, Lummis was rated favorably by 35 percent of likely voters, unfavorably by 34 percent, neutral by 24 percent, and 7 percent said they didn't recognize her name.

Herbert was rated favorably by 8 percent, unfavorably by 8 percent, neutral by 27 percent, and 57 percent said they didn't recognize his name.

Lummis, who was campaigning in the Big Horn Basin on Friday, said she was not surprised by the close poll results, and that she is pushing hard to convince undecided voters she is the best candidate.

'We are working hard,' Lummis said. 'We are campaigning all over Wyoming.'

Trauner said he feels "pretty good" about his poll numbers, and thinks that his message will resonate with voters as they begin to pay more attention during the final days of the election.

"I'd love to be ahead by more, but realistically I feel pretty good about where we are right now," said Trauner, who was also campaigning in the Big Horn Basin on Friday. "We always knew it was going to be a close race.'

Some voters upset

The closeness of the race, which surprised some pundits, can largely be credited to Trauner's ability to woo Republican voters, pundits said.

Republicans who participated in the poll said they are supporting the Democrat for a number of reasons.

Republican Lewis Newman of Casper said he is upset with his party this year, and Lummis will go without his vote because of it.

"I'm a registered Republican, but I voted absentee today and I went right down the line today voting Democratic. I've had enough," said Lewis, noting that he is particularly bothered by the impact of the bad economy on his investments.

Chuck Teske, a Republican from Jackson, said he voted for Cubin in 2006, but he's supporting Trauner this time around.

Teske said Cubin's views roughly matched his, but he thinks Trauner has learned much from spending lots of time traveling the state, listening to voters.

"I think he understands what the people of Wyoming want, and where they are at," said Teske, who doesn't feel the same confidence in Lummis. "There is nothing really about Cynthia Lummis that really excites me."

However, Star Valley contractor Lyal Radford said Lummis has a good reputation in his part of the state and he'll be voting for her.

"I am the type that I would rather do it myself and keep the government out of everything," said Radford, who participated in the Star-Tribune poll.

"I feel that she follows those lines better [than Trauner]. She's not much into government running everything for us,' he added.

Contact capital bureau reporter Jared Miller at (307) 632-1244 or {M7jared.miller@trib.com.