HOLDREGE, Neb. - Dry conditions could get worse in western Nebraska, where a global weather pattern let crops wither and keep water levels at Lake McConaughy near record-low levels this summer.

State climatologist Al Dutcher delivered the grim prediction this week at a water conference in Holdrege, saying there could be massive problems with crops if the forecast were to come true.

"I'm really concerned about the western part of the state," Dutcher said.

A major culprit is the La Nina climate cycle caused by subnormal water surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Just a few months ago, climatologists expected La Nina would fizzle out early this year.

Now, Dutcher says, there is a 50-50 chance the pattern will last into next winter.

If it does, western Nebraskans could get a false sense of security: Relatively wet conditions in the spring could precede a bone-dry summer.

Meanwhile, the central and eastern parts of the state could be spared the potentially bad conditions. Soils in those regions are nearly saturated, which could soften the blow of drier-than-normal conditions in the summer.

They may now be too wet for comfort now: Dutcher said there is a substantial risk that spring planting will be delayed.

That's starkly different from the western part of the state. Soil is already dry in the much of the region - roughly from McCook north to the South Dakota border - that Dutcher said could get punished this summer.

"There's a very sharp delineation line from the have and the have-nots," he said.

But the state could share one common weather condition. Dutcher predicts a "very active severe weather season in the Central Plains."

Among the group of mostly farmers Dutcher addressed Thursday were officials from Holdrege-based Central Nebraska Public Power and Irrigation District, the state's largest irrigation provider and owner of Lake McConaughy. The reservoir is up to only 31 percent of capacity because of weak inflows from the North Platte River. Over the last five years, flows into the lake have been less than half the historical average.

Instead of the 18 inches of irrigation water the district's customers usually get, they're slated to get just 6.7 inches this year, and they'll pay $2 per acre more for the water because of a recent rate increase.

One reason is that the low flows into the reservoir have caused a steep dip in revenues from hydropower, which has been the district's chief moneymaker.

If a summer drought comes, it could exacerbate problems already expected on the North Platte, said Cory Steinke, civil engineer for the power and irrigation district.

Two Wyoming reservoirs that also rely on the river are each less than a quarter full, he said.

Because the North Platte reaches those depleted reservoirs first, there won't be enough left over to significantly raise water levels at Big Mac even if mountain snowmelt that feeds the North Platte ends up being normal or above normal, Steinke said.

"I don't know if we'll hit a record low, but we could come real close," Steinke said after listening to Dutcher.

"We're good, that must mean McConaughy is good," he said, expressing the view many people in wet, eastern Nebraska may now have. "But it's not. It's like we live in two different worlds."