Boosting domestic production won't fix problem, UW expert says
Like many Wyomingites, Jim Robinson commutes a significant distance to work each day.
As might be expected, Robinson, the senior economist for the Wyoming Department of Revenue's economic analysis division, carpools to save money.
The savings on gasoline once realized two years ago seems insignificant today.
"More people are saying, 'If I could just get a job in the town where I live,"' Robinson said.
The skyrocketing cost of gasoline may provide some gains for state revenue in Wyoming from oil production, according to local economic experts.
The gains from oil production - and more from natural gas and coal - should provide robust funding for K-12 schools, highways and other public amenities. But it's unlikely to counteract the adverse economic impacts on residents and businesses here, according to economic experts.
"They're kind of stuck. It's not like they're getting increases in wages to compensate for the increases in the cost of gasoline and other goods," Robinson said.
Despite Wyoming's fossil fuel might and a forecast for strong energy-based tax revenues, the only advantage the high price of oil might have for citizens here may be strong revenues for public services and good job security.
Although energy producers are primed to tap Wyoming's wind and fossil fuel resources, it appears Wyomingites are just as prone as anyone in the United States to the adverse effects of high oil prices.
The cushion between world oil supply and demand has shrunk below 2 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which is cause for concern about infrastructure interruptions as the United States heads into the hurricane season.
Although much is made about vast petroleum resources that remain untapped in the United States, they provide no immediate relief, one Wyoming expert says.
Looking to the next year, Charles F. Mason, the H.A. "Dave" True Jr. professor of petroleum and natural gas economics at the University of Wyoming, said the notion that the nation could simply drill more wells to become "independent" of foreign oil imports simply isn't realistic.
"It's a myth," Mason said.
More than half of the U.S. oil supply comes from foreign imports, and foreign imports are about 10 million barrels per day. Even if oil reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge were fully open today, according to one estimate, it might add about 900,000 barrels per day to North American supply.
Another problem with the untapped resources that many politicians refer to, Mason said, is that many are "unconventional" sources, such as oil shale. Those reserves are expensive to produce, refine and take to market.
"We could probably produce enough crude substitutes to become fully independent in 10 or 20 years," Mason said. "But those would be more expensive than what we can buy on the global market."
The high price of oil has, and will likely continue to, persuade energy companies to tap domestic petroleum resources that were previously written off as uneconomically viable. Yet, the yearslong task to recover the resource is substantial, Mason said.
"Oil doesn't magically appear because the price goes up," he said.
Even the excitement of 40 million barrels per year from the Bakken play in Montana and North Dakota - a massive resource unlocked equally by advanced technologies and high prices - didn't immediately excite pipeline companies to build the infrastructure to bring the resource to market.
Wyoming, and much of the Rockies, still lacks the pipeline and refinery infrastructure to take on a significant additional flow of oil.
Of America's potential to unlock more domestic resources, Mason said, "It's truly small potatoes in the context of the global oil market."
In political circles, there will certainly be heated discussion about ANWR and the continental shelf regions, he said. But there's little chance this American brand of crude can rescue Americans from the world oil market price.
"It's a great place to make a stand if a politician is up for re-election. But realistically, I don't see that as having a significant impact," he said.
Energy reporter Dustin Bleizeffer can be reached at (307) 577-6069 or dustin.bleizeffer@trib.com.
Posted in State-and-regional on Sunday, June 15, 2008 12:00 am | Tags: Fuel, Prices, Oil, Drilling, Wyoming, June, 15, 2008
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