There's no quick remedy, economist says
High energy prices can be blamed on unmatched world economic growth, coupled with the oil industry's inability to quickly tap more of the world's reserves.
So what does that mean for Wyoming?
Expect continued growth in the production of coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, wind and all other forms of energy. But don't expect the average personal income to compete well against the rising cost of energy and the effect that has on all other commodities.
Mark Finley, senior U.S. economist for BP, said worldwide energy consumption increased by 2.4 percent in 2007. Although BP believes there are abundant oil reserves around the world, the industry simply cannot open the spigot quickly enough to provide immediate relief.
"In the short term, there's not a lot that can be done, because it takes a long time for investment to ramp up and have an impact," Finley told the Star-Tribune. "This energy market situation that we find ourselves in today has taken us decades to get into, so it will take time to get out. But the longer we wait, the longer it will be."
Finley spoke at luncheon in Casper on Friday sponsored by the Wyoming Business Alliance and Wyoming Heritage Foundation. He gave an overview of BP's annual statistical review on world energy, which is a premier analysis in the world of economics.
The world just witnessed one of the strongest economic growth periods in history with the industrialization of India, China and other developing nations. China accounted for half of the growth in global energy consumption in 2007, according to BP.
In fact, the developing nations accounted for 90 percent of all energy consumption in the world in 2007.
"They're trying to play catch-up and build the infrastructure that we already have," Finley said.
That unfettered growth in energy consumption was enabled in large part by government subsidies, but some of those are beginning drop off. If consumers are faced with the actual cost of energy, then the energy demand growth should weaken and take the pressure off of prices, he said.
But these marketplace corrections take time.
"I'm kind of surprised not to see more of an impact" in consumption, Finley said.
Energy producers are trying to respond. U.S. oil production actually increased in 2007 - the first time since 1991, according to BP. U.S. onshore oil production has risen for two years in a row - the first time since 1985.
Wyoming, the proclaimed "Btu Capital of the World," continues to enjoy robust state revenues, strong wages and job security thanks to natural gas, oil and coal. Yet Wyoming families are not seeing incomes rise at the same rate as the cost of living.
The cost of living in Wyoming increased 4.4 percent in fourth quarter 2006, 4.7 percent in second quarter 2007, and 6.1 percent in fourth quarter 2007. The U.S. cost of living increased an average 3.1 percent during the same periods.
Jim Robinson, senior economist for the state's economic analysis division, said the cost of living is outstripping personal income.
"Citizens are faced with a higher cost of energy, higher cost of housing, and we're starting to see food prices go up as well. And we don't see that salaries are going up at the same rate," Robinson said in a phone interview.
The average personal income in Wyoming was $43,226 in 2007, according to Robinson. He said an important statistic is that the state's oil and gas industry has maintained its 18,000 workers since the first quarter of 2007.
"Our energy cycle goes up, followed by a bust. This time, instead of reaching a peak, we've kind of reached a plateau," Robinson said. "We're at what I would call a sustainable level of energy production."
Energy reporter Dustin Bleizeffer can be reached at (307) 577-6069 or dustin.bleizeffer@trib.com.
Posted in State-and-regional on Saturday, June 28, 2008 12:00 am | Tags: Energy, Prices, Bp, Mark, Finley, Wyoming, June, 28, 2008
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