RUFFIN PREVOST Gazette Wyoming Bureau | Posted: Monday, March 17, 2008 12:00 am
CODY - With gasoline prices already climbing past their summer highs of last year, filling the tank for this year's vacation looks likely to cost more than ever. But area tourism industry representatives say they aren't worried.
"Whether gas prices will hurt travel is sort of the perennial question, but people in the tourism business are saying that they aren't seeing an effect on bookings," said Sarah Lawlor, spokeswoman for Travel Montana, the state's tourism office.
Tourism to Montana should increase by about 2 percent this year, Lawlor said.
Wyoming is also expecting an increase, with inquires this year up about 15 percent over the same period in 2007, which was a "banner year," said Diane Shober, head of tourism for the state.
"This year, I'm a little more cautious about where gas prices might be going, because they're much higher earlier in the year than they have been in the last four years," Shober said. "I don't know what the tipping point is for consumers."
Tourism is the second-largest industry in Montana and Wyoming, bringing a combined total of more than $5.5 billion in direct visitor expenditures to the two states.
But industry insiders say it is often a guessing game determining how and why travelers spend their money.
Steve Wahrlich, owner of the Best Western Clock Tower Inn in Billings, said $4-per-gallon gas might push travelers to downgrade or cancel trips, but lifestyle and work trends are influencing vacations as much as gas prices.
Traditional, two-week summer vacations are becoming less common for many American families, he said, with many people traveling instead for one week, and visiting more sites across a smaller area.
Wahrlich, president of the Yellowstone County Lodging Association, said he is expecting area tourism to be flat this year compared with 2007.
"I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so. Besides, if you look at it for us in the county area and in Billings, we have had 600 new (hotel) rooms open up. So even if we remain flat, there's been some growth," he said.
"Traditionally, gas prices have not been an issue when it comes to travel to Yellowstone," said Rick Hoeninghausen, director of sales and marketing for Xanterra Parks and Resorts, the main lodging company in Yellowstone National Park.
Advance reservations for the park are up so far this year over 2007, which was a record year for Yellowstone visits, Hoeninghausen said.
"This is one of those trips that's a once- or twice-in-a-lifetime thing, kind of a dream trip," he said, adding that most people don't cancel such plans because of a bump in gas prices.
While oil prices last week hit record highs, the U.S. dollar reached a record low against the euro.
"We're 'on sale' as far as European and international travelers are concerned, and I am seeing an increase in our international reservations right now," Hoeninghausen said.
A weak dollar also may persuade some affluent U.S. travelers to vacation at home rather than abroad, steering traffic to national parks, Lawlor said.
The weak dollar could also bring strong 2009 bookings for dude ranches, where customers often pay for part or all of their lodging and food at the time of reservation, said Colleen Hodson, director of the Dude Ranchers' Association in Cody, Wyo.
"So far, we're staying pretty steady with what we saw last year, and not seeing a big rise in bookings," she said.
"Every year, bookings get later and later, maybe because people are waiting to see what happens with gas prices and airline tickets. A lot of our visitors have to fly and then drive to get to the ranch where they're staying," Hodson said.
Requests for Billings area maps and vacation guides are up compared to last year, said Joan Kronebusch, director of sales and marketing for the Billings Convention and Visitors Bureau.
"Our numbers are up at our visitor center, too. Usually by this time of year, we're at about 160 visitors per week, but we're up to around 220 per week now," she said.
An off year will usually mean calls from worried hotel owners asking about upcoming conventions or meetings that might boost occupancy rates, Kronebusch said.
"But so far this year, nobody's crying the blues. They're all very, very happy with the way business looks and how summer is shaping up," she said.
More than gas prices, the overall economy and cost of consumer goods is likely to play a role in travelers' plans, said Denice Harris, spokeswoman for the American Automobile Association's MountainWest office in Helena, which serves Montana and Wyoming.
Some analysts are predicting peak summer gas prices of $3.75 to $4 per gallon, up from current averages of $3.08 in Wyoming and $3.21 in Montana, she said.
But most of the region remains an affordable destination compared with attractions like Las Vegas or Disney World, she said, adding that a 50-cents-per-gallon increase in gas prices amounts to less than $100 in added expense to the average driving vacation.
"Typically, that extra $100 hasn't been a deal-breaker for most people," Harris said. "People might eat less expensive meals or stay in a cheaper motel, or find other ways of cutting back."
Especially in the West, many people work all year to save for a summer vacation focused on outdoor fun, and paying more at the pump won't deter them, she said.
"Outdoor recreation is part of our culture here, and culture is hard to change," Harris said. "That's why, when it comes to gas prices, most people grin and bear it."