Extension of drought could cause even more problems in '07 and beyond
CORY MATTESON Star-Tribune staff writer | Posted: Friday, January 5, 2007 12:00 am
In April of last year, hopes were high that a strong snowpack and healthy reservoirs would push Wyoming out of a drought that began in 2001. That the factors would prevent one of the driest states in the nation from getting any worse than normal.
"With this moisture we got down here this spring, we're in good shape," Shawn Booth, who operates the Booth Cherry Creek Ranch in Goshen County, told the Star-Tribune then.
All he got after that article ran, he said Thursday, was hell.
"We never got any rain the rest of the year," said Booth, who is accused by fellow ranchers of jinxing the weather. "I was kind of blamed for most of that last year, so I hate to say anything."
But after a year during which he saw Depression-era conditions on his land - fine, fine dust blowing across a bone-dry range, causing people and livestock in Veteran to grow sick - Booth said he hopes for a better 2007.
"It's looking like maybe the weather's changing," he said.
"The first couple years you're in denial," said John Lawson, area manager of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. "We've been through these before. It'll change."
But it hasn't, Lawson said.
"This is darn serious," he said.
Considering last year's dramatic downturn and the state's current conditions, hoping is what many in Wyoming whose livelihoods depend on the water are doing.
The prolonged drought is causing changes in the way irrigators work their land, recreationists enjoy the waters, forests are at risk and more. If the dry conditions persist another two, three years, it could change the number of operating reservoirs in the state as well.
"If we don't start seeing something of significant change, we're going to have to make some decisions (with Wyoming) Game and Fish with reservoirs we will have to let go," Lawson said.
Casper Regional Fisheries Supervisor Al Conder said Pathfinder Reservoir, one of the two largest in Wyoming, is at risk if conditions don't improve or worsen in the next few years.
"I definitely don't want to be Chicken Little at this time," Lawson said. But the water must be held as high on the North Platte River as possible, he said, so BuRec must look at contingency plans, and the prolonged drought has made diverting Pathfinder the likely option in an effort to keep as much water in the upstream Seminoe Reservoir as possible.
As of Wednesday, Pathfinder held 234,557 acre feet of water, about 23.1 percent of capacity and 42 percent of its average for this month, Lawson said.
Lawson said the reservoir could get as low as about 50,000 acre feet before it becomes time to consider sky-is-falling possibilities.
With irrigators in multiple states depending on the same dwindling body of water as people who use them for recreation, along with the 34,000 acre feet now allocated to the Endangered Species Act-influenced Platte River Recovery Implementation Program in Nebraska, the reservoir's supply is strained.
"People are struggling," Lawson said.
"We would lose Pathfinder as a fishery," Conder said.
Conder said the state faced a similar situation in 1993 and 1994, when Pathfinder's levels were a little lower even than now. Then the spring of '95 brought very good rain, he said, and Pathfinder was full.
"It can turn around really quick," he said. "I'm hoping it snows and gets belly-button deep."
Looking for a rebound
Last April, the weather appeared to be turning. Many snowpacks were larger than normal, and Seminoe Reservoir was at about 86 percent of average.
"We were smiling and (saying) this is gonna work," Lawson said. "And it just quit."
The months when ranchers need the most water - April, May and June - offered nothing, said Joe Glode, president of the Upper North Platte Water Users Association, and ranchers had to adapt.
Booth, the Goshen County rancher, said fall cattle grazing typically begins in the highland pastures and works its way down toward the irrigated land. In 2006, the herd descended on Aug. 1, because there was virtually nothing to graze in the high country, he said.
In an effort to protect against that happening again, Booth said he'll probably cut his herd down from 600 to about 400 or 450 before spring calving begins.
In Scottsbluff, Neb., and near the Glendo basin, Lawson said some ranchers are planting smaller grains, forgoing traditional crops. Lawson said those ranchers are hoping the weather turns so they can plant beans and normal grains later in the year.
"It's too risky for them to depend on water," Lawson said.
Last year, Glode said, he saw ranchers in his area of the state sell off their land. Though the sales were based on a variety of factors, the difficulty of maintaining ranches as feed costs skyrocketed and water supplies dwindled was certainly up there, he said.
"I'd hope for a weakened winter and a moist spring," Glode said. "We haven't had a good, moist spring since this drought began."
The ground was nice and muddy in Veteran on Thursday, and Booth said he hoped 2007 would be good to him and the state.
"Mother Nature, every now and then she can be so kind and so tough," Booth said. "I'm an optimist. You have to be in this business."
Contact reporter Cory Matteson at (307) 266-0589 or cory.matteson@casperstartribune.net.