Undecided voters will determine election, poll shows
JARED MILLER Star-Tribune capital bureau | Posted: Tuesday, October 17, 2006 12:00 am
CHEYENNE - With Election Day less than a month away, Dixie Bradley of Green River still isn't sure which candidate she'll choose in the race for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat.
She sided with Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin in the past, but now she's torn by GOP handling of the war in Iraq and what she sees as problems with the health care system and Social Security.
"I think we need a voice in there from a woman's side, but I haven't really made up my mind," said Bradley, a 68-year-old retiree who took part in a recent political poll commissioned by the Casper Star-Tribune.
Bradley, who claims allegiance to no political party, was among the 15 percent of those polled who said they were undecided about the race between Cubin and Democratic challenger Gary Trauner of Wilson.
Cubin is leading Trauner 44 percent to 37 percent, according to the poll of 625 registered Wyoming voters who said they are likely to participate in the November general election. Libertarian Thomas Rankin of Casper received 4 percent.
The numbers represent a 10-point drop for Cubin since a similar poll conducted in February, while Trauner gained five percentage points during the eight-month span.
The recent survey was conducted via telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., between Oct. 9 and Oct. 12. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
The battleground in the final weeks of the election is the 15 percent of voters who remain undecided.
About three-quarters of them are registered Republicans, according to the poll. Just 13 percent of them have a favorable opinion of Cubin, while 39 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her and 48 percent are neutral.
While those figures might seem to bode well for Trauner, pollster Brad Coker with Mason-Dixon said a couple of factors are working in Cubin's favor, including the probable re-election of Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal, who is leading GOP candidate Ray Hunkins 63 percent to 30 percent, according to a similar Star-Tribune poll.
"With most Republicans already crossing over to vote for a Democrat in the governor's race and party control of the U.S. House at stake, these GOP voters may ultimately hold their noses and vote for Cubin," Coker said.
Also, the Libertarian candidate will probably attract some disgruntled Republicans - stealing potential votes from Trauner, Coker said.
"They're people who have decided they're not voting Republican, but they can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat," he said.
Representatives of Cubin's and Trauner's camps on Monday made opposing predictions about who would claim the hearts of the vacillating voters.
Trauner's campaign manager, Linda Stoval, said the undecided voters probably don't know much about her candidate yet. The poll showed nearly a quarter of those surveyed did not recognize Trauner's name.
Stoval is confident they'll jump on board after a final push of media ads, and as Trauner continues to introduce himself around the state.
"He hasn't had 12 years to get his message out," Stoval said.
Cubin said the poll is similar to one during her re-election campaign two years ago against Wilson businessman Ted Ladd. Cubin eventually defeated Ladd 57 percent to 43 percent.
"The poll released by the Casper Star-Tribune suggests to us that we have a campaign plan that is being carried out in an efficient and professional manner," Cubin said in a written statement Monday. "As a matter of fact, we are growing more and more confident in victory on Election Day."
Last week's poll showed that Cubin received support from 60 percent of Republicans, 13 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of independents. Trauner garnered support from 19 percent of Republicans, 76 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of independents. Rankin won over 3 percent of Republicans, 2 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of independents.
Of those surveyed, 33 percent said they had a favorable impression of Trauner, 18 percent unfavorable and 25 percent neutral. The rest didn't recognize his name.
Cubin's favorable-to-unfavorable name ID score was 43 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable and 11 percent neutral, with 1 percent unsure who she was.
The poll also measured which candidate voters felt would do a better job with important national issues. Cubin came out ahead on most, but the number of undecided voters was around one-fifth in each category.
On the war in Iraq and national security issues, Cubin received 44 percent, Trauner 31 percent, Rankin 5 percent, while 20 percent said they were unsure.
In the area of health care, Cubin was favored by 40 percent, Trauner 36 percent, Rankin 4 percent, with 20 percent unsure.
Environmental issues were the only area were Trauner edged Cubin. He received 39 percent to Cubin's 38 percent - a dead heat when factoring in the 4 percent margin of error. Rankin received 5 percent, and 18 percent were unsure.
Voters were also split in the area of honesty and ethical issues, with Cubin receiving 38 percent and Trauner 34 percent, another statistical tie. Rankin received 6 percent, and 22 percent were unsure.
When it came to who was likely to bring the most federal money to Wyoming, Cubin was on top with 47 percent, Trauner 31 percent and Rankin 3 percent, with 19 percent unsure.
On energy issues and gas prices, Cubin received 37 percent, Trauner 34 percent, Rankin 5 percent, with 24 percent unsure.
In the area of education issues, Cubin received 39 percent, Trauner 32 percent, Rankin 4 percent, with 25 percent unsure.
Steve Frank of Laramie said he's voting for Trauner. The 56-year-old retired Democrat and lifelong Wyoming resident said Cubin doesn't represent him very well.
"Pretty much she goes straight down party lines, and she definitely doesn't represent me or my views," Frank said.
Meanwhile, Republican Diane Turner of Cheyenne will vote as she always does, Republican.
"I believe more in what the Republicans believe in, and it just doesn't make any sense to throw a Democrat in there," the 64-year-old business owner said.
But it appears that Wyoming's less decisive voters will have the final say on Nov. 7.
Republican voters who largely are unhappy with Cubin will decide whether she returns to Washington, D.C., for a seventh term.
"It's simply a matter of, can she convince them that they need to take one for the team?" Coker said.
Reach capital bureau reporter Jared Miller at (307) 632-1244 or at jared.miller@casperstartribune.net.